What Can Small Businesses Expect During Economic Uncertainty?

In celebration of Small Business Month, the latest episode of the Market Pulse podcast focuses on how small businesses are navigating today's shifting economic landscape. Experts Darryl Tyndorf, Director of Economic and Analytical Insights at Fiserv, and Mike Spriggs, Head of Consumer Insights at Fiserv, discuss what the data says about consumer behavior, business resilience, and the challenges and opportunities ahead.

The State of Small Business: Growth vs Caution

The panel kicks off the conversation by acknowledging the rapidly changing economic environment. With rising tariffs, conflicting economic signals, and consumer behavior in flux, uncertainty is the defining theme.

Mike Spriggs, Head of Consumer Insights at Fiserv, paints a vivid picture of the mood: “I think we’re in the middle of a global game of hokey pokey. We’re in, we’re out.” That back-and-forth motion reflects how consumers are responding to contradictory market signals — spending heavily one month and pulling back the next.

Darryl Tyndorf, Director of Economic and Analytical Insights at Fiserv, said we just don’t know when we’re going to feel any of these pressures. The timing and impact of inflation, tariffs, and economic slowdowns are unpredictable, leaving both consumers and small business owners hesitant to act.

Spending Trends and Shifting Priorities

Spriggs notes that consumer spending data shows a pullback in discretionary purchases — particularly on big-ticket items. “We’re seeing a decided downshift,” he says, explaining that people seem to be holding onto cash until things become more clear.

Public transportation is up, suggesting more people are returning to work, but travel spending is down. Consumers are being more selective, finding value where they can. Restaurants, for example, are seeing growth primarily in the quick-service segment, which allows people to stretch their dollars while still dining out.

Tyndorf explains that while inflation headlines may suggest easing, the reality is more nuanced. Core categories like housing and utilities continue to climb, and many recent spending figures reflect purchases of existing, lower-cost inventory. There wasn’t an incentive to push those higher prices onto consumers yet, but he says the pressure is coming.

The Credit Conundrum

One of the most concerning takeaways from the episode is the increasing reliance on credit. “There’s a hard stop with that at some point,” Spriggs warns, referring to the rising use of credit cards and loans to sustain spending. While consumer resilience has been strong, it may be built on borrowed time — and borrowed money.

For small businesses, this poses a dual threat. Not only might consumers reduce spending, but businesses themselves often rely on credit for operations and growth. Access to credit is always the biggest driver, and if lenders pull back, it could impact hiring, investment, and even business continuity.

Side Hustles, Startups, and Strategic Pivots

Yet despite the uncertainty, entrepreneurship is booming. Equifax is adding more than 400,000 new businesses to its databases a month, a figure that’s significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels.

What’s fueling the surge? The panelists suggest it’s a combination of necessity and opportunity. Some are turning to side hustles to supplement income or hedge against job insecurity. Others are pursuing entrepreneurial ideas because economic disruption has created gaps in the market.

Tyndorf adds that starting an LLC or launching a business can be a form of economic resilience. “Maybe me developing an LLC is a smart move,” he says. “That somebody would still pay me to do these things if they’re not going to pay… in a larger employment structure.”

Small businesses also have an edge in adapting quickly to change. From shifting supply chains to modifying menus or business models, they aren’t weighed down by the red tape that slows larger enterprises.

What Will It Take to Regain Confidence?

As the episode draws to a close, the conversation returns to the one thing businesses and consumers need most: confidence. 

For now, though, the uncertainty remains. “I think we’re still going to be uncertain,” says Tyndorf. “We are going to see rising prices. It’s going to be how adaptable businesses — especially small businesses — and consumers are to that.”

Spriggs adds a recent data point that illustrates the current mood: “We just did a review of Mother’s Day activity… and I hate to say it, but ‘Mom, we’re on a budget this year.’” Even traditionally strong spending holidays are reflecting caution.

Yet the conversation ends with hope. If businesses can continue to read the signals, adapt to shifting demand, and stay nimble in their operations, there’s opportunity ahead. As Spriggs notes, economic realignments create new norms — and those who are ready can thrive in them.

Stay Informed

For more insights or to suggest topics for future episodes, reach out to the Equifax Advisory team at riskadvisors@equifax.com. And don’t forget to subscribe to the Market Pulse Podcast wherever you get your podcasts.

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*The opinions, estimates, and forecasts presented herein are for general information use only. This material is based upon information that we consider to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. No person should consider distribution of this material as making any representation or warranty with respect to such material and should not rely upon it as such. Equifax does not assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. The opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published herein represent the views of the presenters as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Equifax or its management.