Global Credit Trends

   North America

 Canada: The overall Canadian mortgage market showed signs of recovery, with new mortgage originations rising 39% YoY. First-time homebuyers returned, with a 28.2% increase from the extreme lows of purchases in Q4‘23. Non-mortgage lending remained subdued, with the exception of a surge in non-bank auto loans, which dominated new originations.

  South America

 Argentina: Demand in ‘24 continues with the positive trajectory observed since the start of ‘24, with an upward trend towards the end of the year.

 Ecuador: Non-mortgage inquiries decreased 9.7% compared to Q3’24, reaching its lowest point in the last 4 years.

 Brazil: In Q4’24, credit demand remained stable compared to the previous quarter.

   Europe

  Spain: Credit demand in 2H’24 slightly decreased with respect to the same period last year, a tendency that was not observed during 1H’24. In general, the credit trend of ‘24 showed similar patterns to ‘23.

  Oceania

  Australia: High interest rates and a drop in refinance activity compared to the year before resulted in less accounts opened in Q4‘24 YoY. However, Australia saw a second consecutive quarter of growth in mortgage demand, now at 2.7% YoY, suggesting a potential resurgence in consumer confidence.

  New Zealand: Mortgage inquiries in Q4’24 increased by 12.1% compared to last year against the backdrop of falling retail interest rates. This is driven by borrowers shopping around in a competitive environment, a trend that has persisted for several months.  

  India: The automobile sector is one of the key drivers of the Indian economy and it contributes ~6% to India’s National GDP. Auto originations increased 10% QoQ in Q4‘24.

   Card Utilization

  United States: While the trend continues where utilization is highest in Q4 and drops slightly in Q1 the following year, utilization has been steadily increasing since the 2020 drop and has now reached pre-pandemic levels, likely as a result of increasing prices and depleting savings.

  Canada: While credit utilization remained steady, overall credit card debt continued its upward climb, increasing by 7.8% YoY, though this marks the slowest growth rate since ‘22.

  Argentina: In Q4‘24 balances and credit limits both increased by 25%, maintaining the ratio observed in the Q3‘24.

  Ecuador: Credit card utilization remains stable due to increase in credit limits in the overdebt sector. Total credit card debt increased 2.8% in Q4’24.

   Delinquency

 United States: Despite a drop in Q2‘24 and Q3‘24, credit card delinquency in Q4‘24 is well above the last 5 years’ delinquency in terms of accounts and dollars continuing a trend towards consumer distress.

 Canada: Credit card 90+ balance delinquency rate surpassed pre-pandemic levels. 

 Brazil: The delinquency rate for credit cards increased by 5%.

 India: Credit card delinquency increased by 29 bps QoQ, signaling that credit card stress is increasing in the Indian economy.

   North America

  United States: Non-mortgage delinquency balances are continuing to climb versus prior year in key categories including auto (2.2%) and credit card (14%) and reached levels above pre-pandemic. Though up roughly 23% YoY, mortgage delinquency is still below pre-pandemic and global financial crisis levels.

  Canada: Overall 90+ days non-mortgage delinquency rates reached a new peak of 1.53% in Q4‘24, up 23 bps from Q4‘23, and severe balance level delinquency across all products exceeded pre-pandemic levels.

  South America

  Argentina:  A decrease in the delinquency rate is observed compared to previous quarters and is expected to remain stable.

  Ecuador:  In Q4‘24, the delinquency rate continued to rise due to the deterioration of repayment. Financial relief measures were implemented to support individuals facing economic difficulties.

  Brazil:  The delinquency rate for personal loans and auto are both stable, compared to Q3‘24.

   Europe

  United Kingdom: After a challenging period, ‘24 provided welcome stability in delinquency rates with most account types remaining consistent through the best part of the year. Further trend improvements were observed in Q4‘24, with overall delinquency rates dropping across both secured and unsecured markets. Notably, the credit card delinquency rate reached its lowest level in two and a half years.

  Oceania

  Australia:  Low unemployment continued to keep delinquencies in check. Overall delinquencies increased vs. last quarter as per seasonal expectations, but change is marginal. Late stage delinquencies had a small nominal increase of 1.1% in the number of accounts and 10.3% in limits in delinquency.

  New Zealand:  Late stage delinquencies have leveled off (if not improved) through 2H‘24, following a persistent run of increases post-pandemic. Most products have finished within a few bps of the levels seen at the end of ‘23, apart from approximately 30 bps YoY increases in Personal Loan and Auto Loans.

  India:  Mortgage delinquency saw a 3 bps decline YoY. Non-mortgage loans saw a 45 bps increase across products.