Q3 Market Pulse: Business Leaders on the State of the Economy, Fraud, and the Mortgage Industry in Q3 2025
Highlights:
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Consumer spending and prices are the primary economic factors businesses are watching, with a majority maintaining current lending strategies, while some are expanding or tightening.
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Emerging fraud trends, such as AI-leveraged fraud and synthetic IDs, are the top concern, leading businesses to enhance internal training and invest in new technologies for prevention.
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Affordability challenges for home buyers and high interest rates are the main trends impacting the mortgage industry, with many anticipating a mortgage rate change as the most likely shift.
The third quarter of 2025 brought a series of insightful Market Pulse webinars, offering a valuable snapshot of the current economic climate and the prevailing sentiment among businesses. These webinars, attended by hundreds of professionals from a range of industries, unveiled key trends, opportunities, and challenges that organizations are grappling with. Each month, we survey attendees, both during and after that month’s Market Pulse webinar, to hear how they are feeling about market trends and how it’s impacting their organization’s strategy.
Economic Factors and Lending Strategies in Focus
The July webinar, "Powering Growth and Limiting Risk in the Second Half of 2025," highlighted a strong interest in the outlook of the U.S. market and its powerful impact on business strategy. When asked about the primary economic factors they are planning to watch in the second half of the year, a significant portion of respondents (43.5%) pointed to consumer spending as the primary economic factor they’re watching, followed closely by prices (40%). The labor market (13.7%) and supply chains (2.8%) also registered as areas to watch.
Regarding potential changes to lending strategies, a majority of organizations (56.7%) reported maintaining their current position, while 23% indicated expanding their approach and 20.3% were tightening. This suggests a cautious yet varied landscape, with many businesses opting for stability amidst economic shifts.
Fighting Fraud in Uncertain Times
August’s webinar, "Fighting Fraud in Uncertain Times: What Lenders Need to Know," underscored the critical importance of fraud prevention. The top fraud concern for respondents’ organizations (55.5%) was emerging fraud trends (e.g., AI-leveraged fraud, credit stacking, synthetic IDs). Other concerns included balancing risk management with customer experience (20.4%), data security (20%), and costs associated with maintaining security (4.1%).
When approaching fraud prevention, a majority (57.2%) focused on enhancing internal training, while 33.9% invested in new technologies (e.g., AI, advanced analytics).
Navigating the Mortgage Market
The September webinar, "What Now? How Data Can Answer Your Top Mortgage Questions," reflected ongoing complexities in the mortgage industry. The top mortgage market trend (63.7%) was affordability challenges for home buyers. High interest rates (26.3%), regulatory changes (7.4%), and mortgage fraud (2.6%) were also significant challenges.
Looking ahead, 53.4% of respondents believed a mortgage rate change was the most likely shift. A refinance wave (27.3%), an increase in inventory (10.2%), and regulatory change around the use of tri-merge reports (9.1%) were also anticipated.
Other Top Challenges We’re Facing
Beyond the immediate concerns, several other critical pain points are significantly impacting businesses today. These challenges, while not entirely new, are intensified by the current economic climate and evolving market demands.
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Uncertainty and Economic Volatility: Businesses are grappling with unpredictable consumer spending, fluctuating interest rates, and the impact of trade cost changes. This constant state of flux makes long-term planning difficult and demands agile strategies to adapt to rapid changes.
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The Ever-Present Threat of Fraud and Data Security: In an increasingly digital world, fraud remains a major concern. Businesses are under pressure to implement robust fraud solutions and enhance data security measures to protect both their assets and customer information, all while striving for seamless customer experiences.
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Mortgage Market Dynamics and Affordability: The mortgage industry faces unique hurdles, including inventory shortages, rising mortgage rates, and affordability issues. These factors contribute to delinquency risks and impact overall volume, requiring careful navigation and innovative approaches to sustain growth.
These challenges necessitate a proactive and data-driven approach. Businesses must leverage insights and foster collaboration to make smarter, faster decisions with reduced room for error, ensuring resilience and continued success in a demanding environment.
Keep Your Business Goals Within Sight
Need your business to run better and more efficiently? Reach out at riskadvisors@equifax.com.
We hope you will join us for our October 2025 Market Pulse webinar taking place on Thursday, October 16, 2025, where our talented and dynamic panel will discuss their latest insights on overall consumer financial health and navigating uncertainty and consumer shifts as we head into the holiday shopping season. To ask questions in real time and gain deeper insights before anyone else, you must be there. Don’t miss it!
Interested in learning how personalized insights can drive your business forward? Sign up for a complimentary 60-minute Market Pulse Advisory with one of our experts.
Find our monthly Small Business Insights, National Consumer Credit Trends reports, the Market Pulse podcast, and more at our Market Pulse hub.
Broaden your perspective with insights that inspire bold innovation, confident adaptation, and decisive leadership through our Trends and Insights resources.
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