July 2025 Market Pulse: Key Takeaways and Trends You Need to Know Now
Highlights:
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The U.S. economy is undergoing significant shifts, characterized by rising import costs, economic uncertainty, and a cooling but still solid job market.
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Businesses are actively trying to suppress price increases despite rising costs, while housing affordability continues to decline and construction struggles to meet demand, particularly in previously fast-growing Southern cities.
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Key emerging trends to monitor include increasingly cautious consumer spending, global uncertainties impacting markets, and a notable shift in housing growth patterns away from traditional Sun Belt leaders.
The U.S. economy is shifting in some major ways. From rising import costs to slowing consumer spending and a housing market that’s struggling to keep up with demand, several key factors are shaping how businesses and families move forward.
While some numbers still show strength — like job growth and manufacturing — others suggest caution. Understanding what’s happening now can help us prepare for what may come next. Below, we break down the five key takeaways from our July 2025 Market Pulse webinar as well as three emerging themes to watch throughout the rest of the year.
Be sure to register for August’s webinar so you have first access to the most up-to-date trends and data.
Top Five Takeaways from the Current U.S. Economic Picture
1. Import costs are rising quickly.
The cost to bring goods into the U.S. has increased from around 2 percent to as high as 18 percent. This sudden jump is creating uncertainty for both companies and shoppers.
2. Experts hold two very different views on the economy.
Some experts believe these higher costs will raise prices and slow down spending. Others think this is just a short-term change and expect the economy to stay on solid ground, especially with help from new government spending programs.
3. The job market is still solid but slowing.
The job market is still strong but not as hot as it was in 2022 and 2023. Fewer people are quitting and hiring has slowed, showing that workers and companies are being more cautious.
4. Businesses are holding back on raising prices.
Companies in industries like clothing and electronics are doing their best not to raise prices, even as their costs go up. They're trying to stay competitive and keep customers loyal.
5. Housing is becoming harder to afford.
Homes are far less affordable than they were just six years ago. According to the National Association of Realtors, households earning $100,000 per year could afford 64.7% of home listings in 2019.2 As of March 2025, that has dropped to just 37.1% of home listings. Additionally, builders aren’t keeping up with demand, especially in fast-growing southern cities that once led the way in construction.
Three Emerging Trends to Watch
1. Cautious consumers
People are becoming more careful with their spending. After strong growth last year, real spending is starting to level off, which could affect businesses in the coming months.
2. Global uncertainty
Escalating tensions in other regions and China’s economic slowdown are also affecting global markets. Falling factory prices in China may be helping to keep U.S. prices lower for now, but this trend could shift quickly.
3. A shift in housing growth patterns
Sun Belt cities like Phoenix, Dallas, and Atlanta used to be leaders in home construction. Now, due to factors like zoning laws and community pushback, builders are slowing down even when prices rise.
Bottom Line
While the economy isn’t in crisis, it’s clearly changing. Rising costs, a cooling job market, and a slowdown in new housing all point to an uncertain second half of the year. The good news? Many businesses and consumers are adapting. But the months ahead will be critical in showing whether the economy continues to hold steady — or starts to feel more pressure. Either way, staying informed will be key.
Keep Your Business Goals Within Sight
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We hope you will join us for our August 2025 Market Pulse webinar, taking place on Thursday, August 21, 2025, where our talented and dynamic panel will discuss how to manage fraud in this uncertain economic environment. To ask questions in real time and gain deeper insights before anyone else, you have to be there. Don’t miss it!
Interested in learning how personalized insights can drive your business forward? Sign up for a complimentary 60-minute Market Pulse Advisory with one of our experts.
Find our monthly Small Business Insights, National Consumer Credit Trends reports, the Market Pulse podcast, and more at our Market Pulse hub.
Broaden your perspective with insights that inspire bold innovation, confident adaptation, and decisive leadership through our Trends and Insights resources.
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