How Rising Costs and Wealth Shifts are Reshaping the Market: June 2026 Market Pulse Recap

Highlights: 

• Despite robust headline economic figures, the U.S. economy shows fragility characterized by record-low consumer sentiment, where households with lower disposable income are increasingly sensitive to potential market corrections or geopolitical stressors.
• The U.S. wealth landscape is marked by a stark K-shaped divide: affluent households earning over $100,000 benefit from surging stock market equity, while lower-income families struggle with negative real disposable income and depleted savings

As we look ahead to the second half of 2026, important economic and wealth trends shaping the market continue to emerge. 

During the June Market Pulse webinar, Dr. Amy Crews Cutts, President and Chief Economist of AC Cutts and Associates, provided a deep dive into the biggest economic factors impacting today’s market environment. 

Additionally, Ian Wright, Chief Strategy Officer, IXI at Equifax, explored some of the most significant recent wealth trends and how institutions and marketers should adapt to respond to the current landscape.

Dr. Amy Crews Cutts, President and Chief Economist of AC Cutts & Associates, provided an analysis of the broader economic factors influencing consumer behavior and market stability. 

1. A Fragile Economy Tipping on a Trigger: While current economic figures remain robust and well outside of the realm of a potential economic downturn, the overall condition of the U.S. economy is somewhat fragile. Record-low consumer sentiment, the lowest levels ever recorded for lower-tier earners and hovering near record lows for the top third of households, indicates that households have a "jumpy trigger.” If a catalyst like a sustained stock market correction or prolonged geopolitical stressors occurs, consumers are poised to potentially pull back on consumption much faster than they normally would.

2. Persistent Cost Pressures Keeping Rates Higher for Longer: Economists are coming to terms with a "higher for longer" inflationary environment, with consensus forecasts holding at a 3.8% year-over-year CPI rate. This persistence is being driven by global energy disruptions, caused mainly by global conflict, and domestic climate factors, like severe frost and drought in multiple regions throughout the country, which are driving up electric, gas, and food prices.

3. Consumer Labor Concerns Despite Low Unemployment: Although the headline unemployment rate remains low and stable, underlying data reveals substantial consumer distress regarding job security. This anxiety is heavily reflected in a rising labor market differential, meaning a growing share of consumers are reporting that jobs are becoming hard to get even though the official unemployment rate has not yet fully shown it. This gap aligns closely with levels during other economic downturns sentiment as consumers increasingly worry about localized layoffs, despite monthly payroll figures being well ahead of the previous year's average.

4. The Stark K-Shaped Divide in Household Wealth: A deeply divided financial landscape has emerged, stripping away the temporary wage gains some lower-income families achieved during the pandemic. Real disposable personal income has turned negative under the weight of rising costs, forcing the personal savings rate down to 2.6% Conversely, affluent households earning over $100,000 continue to experience expanding spending power and surging asset values, a prosperity heavily concentrated in and propped up by stock market equity. 

Meanwhile, Ian Wright, Chief Strategy Officer, IXI at Equifax, discussed how changes in consumer wealth are impacting the market and how to navigate the effects. 

Here are the top five insights from his presentation:

1. Surging Stock Market Fueling Wealth Expansion: Liquid consumer wealth across bank deposits and investment accounts has grown exceptionally, climbing by 21%, or $13 trillion, between 2021 and 2025. This massive expansion has been driven almost entirely by a surging stock market, with the S&P 500 growing by approximately 44% from 2021 to 2025. Investments now account for a staggering $60 trillion, or 81%, of the overall $74 trillion in total U.S. consumer wealth.

2. The "Perennial Hunt for Deposits" Facing Financial Institutions: While investment portfolios have expanded aggressively, bank deposits have matched these gains. Total deposits have remained roughly flat to declining, experiencing a drop of nearly 10%, around $800 billion, between 2021 and 2025. For banks, what historically seemed like a typical three-year cyclical push to acquire capital has now shifted into a perennial, ongoing hunt for consumer deposits.

3. Liquid Asset Thresholds Dictating Upward and Downward Class Mobility: Within the "pivoting middle class,” roughly 70% of the U.S. credit-visible population, the presence of liquid, accessible assets serves as the single clearest differentiator between upward financial mobility and downward economic slide. Consumers moving upward into the "Thriver" category are overwhelmingly those with over $100,000 in accessible savings and investments to weather economic variables. Conversely, those sliding downward into the "Striver" tier almost entirely lack this $100,000 safety threshold, leaving them highly vulnerable to rising debt burdens and increasing consumer and living costs.¹ 

4. Surgically Targeting the High-Earning, Not Rich Yet (HENRY) Cohort: Marketers and financial institutions tracking younger generations must utilize precise data filters to successfully capture high-lifetime-value Gen Z consumers. Out of 132 million total U.S. households, only about 863,000 qualify as true Gen Z "HENRYs,” consumers under the age of 30 who earn at least $100,000 in income and possess a high Wealth Growth IndicatorTM score of 4 or more. Geographically, these attractive households are heavily concentrated in cities such as New York, Dallas, and Washington D.C. 

5. Geographic Wealth Migration Away from Legacy Hubs: Analyzing geographic metrics exposes significant structural shifts in where consumer wealth resides across the United States. While the "Big Five" states by total asset pools continue to be dominated by California, Florida, Texas, New York and Illinois, a notable drain is occurring out of legacy metropolitan hubs. Neither New York nor Los Angeles appeared on the list of top ten areas experiencing the largest growth in affluent households, suggesting a distinct wealth migration toward alternative growth markets, such as Colorado and Washington D.C.

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We hope you will join us for our next Market Pulse webinar. To ask questions in real time and gain deeper insights before anyone else, you have to be there. Don’t miss it! Stay tuned to register, plus find our monthly Small Business Insights, National Consumer Credit Trends reports, the Market Pulse podcast, and more at our Market Pulse hub. 

Note: 

1. “Thriver,” “pivoting middle class,” and “striver” are defined as those in the credit-visible population who have a Market Pulse Index of 80 or more, 50-79, and 49 and under respectively. 

Source: Equifax, June 2026 Market Pulse Webinar