Product

Absolute Probability of Default

Identify small business delinquency and default risk using data-backed probability models. Get transparent, long-term risk insights to strengthen portfolio decisions and help meet compliance.
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Predict Business Default with Greater Accuracy

Portfolio management presents unique challenges, especially in uncertain times. However, with the ability to clearly see troubles ahead, you can make smarter, data-driven choices. By using objective and consistent risk scoring models, you can gain a complete view of your credit portfolio and detect small business delinquency and default risk early.

These insights also enable you to strengthen your decision-making and meet Current Expected Credit Loss (CECL)/International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 9 compliance. With long-term probability of default (PD) forecasts that look up to seven years into the future, you can proactively manage risk and confidently navigate through uncertain economic conditions. AbsolutePD is a solution that reinforces confidence in your portfolio management. Conducting a risk assessment of existing customers and key segments allows you to make more agile and informed business decisions.

Reduced Losses
Spot risk early and reduce losses by tracking changes in business credit behavior.
Identify New Business Segments
Discover new customer segments through targeted analysis and deeper insights.
Policy Management
Ensure consistency and mitigate risk by aligning credit policies with real-time data.
Maintain Risk Compliance
Meet compliance standards with accurate risk insights and clear regulatory alignment.
Improved Forecasting
Use precise data to adjust forecasts and stay ahead of portfolio performance trends.

How It Works

Introducing Absolute Probability of Default

Learn more about how AbsolutePD takes care of the complex process of  assessing industries, the economy, and the customer to arrive at credible, reliable risk ratings and streamline your portfolio management.

Capture Economic Signals

AbsolutePD incorporates real-time and forward-looking economic data to adjust borrower ratings and reflect changing market conditions.

Quantify and Model with Precision
Built on survival analysis, AbsolutePD uses economic intuition and empirical data to estimate risk without overfitting, ensuring transparency.
Validate with Depth and History
The model is trained on 5+ years of historical data and validated to help ensure better stability, relevance and long-term accuracy.

Stronger Portfolio Management is Within Reach

Whether it's an investment, a one-time project or lean portfolio, there’s no better time than now to strengthen your portfolio management processes. Balance your risk and rewards more effectively with AbsolutePD.

Growth via Acquisition

A national service provider assessed risk across newly acquired accounts using AbsolutePD. They enabled risk rating updates, set accurate loan loss reserves, and accelerated loan review cycles—maximizing control during portfolio integration.

Cross-Sell Optimization

A U.S. bank used AbsolutePD to target growth and generate an estimated $1.9 million in revenue. By identifying high-potential borrowers and product gaps, they boosted acceptance and usage while uncovering market opportunities in 5 states and 3 key sectors.

Frequently Asked Questions

Different businesses monitor their small business portfolios differently.  A good rule of thumb is a quarterly review to assess risk, and more often when looking for opportunities.

In the same way a credit review can reveal pressure on a small business's financial standing, that same credit review can reveal improvements. Not only can you reduce the potential risk and bad debt, but also identify opportunities to expand credit or upsell / cross-sell new services. 

Extremely important.  Unlike consumer credit, small business credit can fluctuate dramatically from quarter-to-quarter.  

Related Resources

White Paper

Explore Equifax AbsolutePD® Model

Equifax AbsolutePD® Model offers consistent, transparent, and objective insights for private companies, even without financial statements.

Understand the Model

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Business Risk Scores
Gain clarity and control with Equifax Business Risk Scores. Predict delinquencies, assess business stability, and make data-driven credit decisions that protect your revenue.
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See How Our Solutions Work

Produced monthly, the Small Business Indices helps lenders and businesses track changes in the small business marketplace by providing insights into both lending and delinquencies.

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