Global Credit Trends

Explore global credit and financial data insights. Delivering trends in credit risk, debt, utilization and delinquencies from around the world.

Executive Summary

Here are 3 top trends across the globe in 2023:

Hardship assistance helps consumers get back on track

In Australia, providers and governing bodies are actively collaborating to reduce the number of closed accounts, currently making up around 10% of accounts that enter hardship assistance programs. After declaring financial hardship, 70% of Australian credit card consumers maintain or improve their status, vs. 56% for mortgages and 52% for personal loans. Plus, the consumers with improved outcomes come off hardship assistance 50% faster.

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Credit card delinquencies are on the rise

In the U.S., while recent economic indicators is reason for cautious optimism, a K-shaped recovery means that certain pockets of consumers will continue to face increasing financial stress. The number of consumers with at least one 30+DPD (days past due) delinquency increased from 4.4% in 2019 to 5.1% in 2023. In addition, credit card balances have increased 24% since 2019 while credit limits have increased by 26%. Credit limits and balances associated with 30+DPD increased by 41% and 46% respectively during this same timeframe.

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Mortgage holders are feeling financial pressure from high interest rates

Upcoming mortgage renewals will be pivotal for many homeowners in Canada — consumers who locked in historically low interest rates, particularly those with substantial loan amounts, may face challenges in sustaining their payments. Mortgage delinquency rates over the last 12 months went up from 0.09% to 0.14%, a 52.3% increase with some regions surpassing pre-pandemic levels. Financially stressed mortgage holders have already started missing payments on credit cards and are now at a higher risk of insolvency.

Glossary of Common Terms & Sources
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Overall Debt

Non-mortgage debt continues to increase across most countries globally driven by demand and inflation.

Chart data is indexed as of Q4 2019.
*Data not reported for this region

    Mortgage Debt

  United States: Mortgage originations are down 20% while average loan amounts are staying steady YoY. Overall mortgage debt has increased by 3.7% YoY

  Canada: Slowest increase in mortgage debt as new originations continue to decline

  Australia: Mortgage originations 9% below last year. National average limit per new account increased 8% YoY

  Brazil: Mortgage debts increased 2% YoY. Non-mortgage debts increased 3% YoY

   Non-Mortgage Debt

  United States: Non-mortgage debt increased by ~9% YoY, driven by increases in credit card debt (15%) and Auto debt (7%). Credit card originations limits are on the rise and are currently 9% higher than the same time a year ago

  Canada: Non-mortgage debt continues to rise with credit cards being the biggest driver. Card spend is slowing but reduced payments are driving balances up

  United Kingdom: Gradual long term increasing trend in credit card balances, likely driven by increased costs. Total credit card balances up 9.6% YoY 

  Spain: Gradual decrease in mortgage debt and stabilization of other forms of debt (only defaulted assets)

  Argentina: Non-mortgage debt presents a 9.2% drop mainly caused by an exchange rate correction and banks’ reluctance to expand their portfolios, given the economic uncertainty ahead of primary elections that took place in Oct ‘23

  Ecuador: Non-mortgage debt presents an increase in the third quarter caused by liquidity and credit supply restrictions. Mainly driven by a 5% increase in credit card debt in 3Q

 

Debt: Money borrowed by consumers at a point in time. Refers to amortized limit or outstanding balance depending on data collected from each region, except Spain which reports just defaulted assets because the Spanish Bureau manages negative data only.

Non-Mortgage: Includes Buy Now Pay Later, credit cards, installment loans, personal loans and automobile loans. Availability and coverage will vary by region.

 

Demand

Growth in card and personal loan demand across multiple regions.

Chart data is indexed as of Q4 2019.
*Data not reported for this region

   North America

 Canada: Non-mortgage demand primarily being driven by higher immigration. Mortgage demand is up year over year with first time home buyers as well as upcoming renewals driving inquiries

 

  South America

 Argentina: Non-mortgage inquiries have remained stable despite the economic context. Online inquiries remain strong in order to retain existing clients and focus on portfolio quality over new clients in the open market

 Ecuador: Non-mortgage inquiries present a slight slowdown (-2%) due to political instability, fiscal and financing risks

 Brazil: In 2023, the demand for credit remained stable, but decreased by about 10% compared to the previous year

  Europe

  United Kingdom: Annual growth rate for all consumer credit rose to 8.0% in September, the highest since November 2018, primarily driven by the annual growth rate for credit card borrowing reaching 12.5% in September

  Spain: Shows an increase in credit demand in Q4’23 compared to the previous quarter which normally has low activity during the summer period

 

  Oceania

  Australia: Mortgage demand during Q4’23 returns to positive growth for the first time since 2021. Softer inflation brought temporary relief for consumers, slowing unsecured credit demand by 5% compared to last year

  New Zealand: Average weekly credit demand in 2023 finishes 4.8% higher than 2022 except for home lending. Weekly mortgage demand for 2023 finished 4% lower than 2022 with notably higher volume into the new year
 

Non-Mortgage: Includes Buy Now Pay Later, credit cards, installment loans, personal loans and automobile loans. Availability and coverage will vary by region.

Utilization

Higher card utilization and delinquencies across most regions as consumers cope with cost of living pressure

Chart data is indexed as of Q4 2019.
*Data not reported for this region

   Rising Card Delinquencies

  United States: Credit card delinquency is continuing to increase and early delinquency (30+DPD after 6 months of opening) is continuing to increase for all score tiers, including prime

  Canada: Vintage view of credit card delinquencies shows a much higher increase in newly opened cards after 6 months of opening (especially in the sub-prime segments)

  Brazil: The delinquency rate for credit cards increased 18% compared to the last year

   Revolving debt

 United States: Credit card utilization has now reached pre-pandemic levels of ~22%. Credit card limits are 26% higher than pre-pandemic and credit card balances are 24% higher than pre-pandemic

 Canada: Credit card utilization is increasing but the overall impact on utilization is being masked due to increasing growth in new credit card volume and higher credit limits being assigned to new cards

 Argentina: The third quarter presents stable levels of credit card utilization. In a context of monthly double-digit inflation and liquidity restrictions, credit cards still remain the most common financial instrument as a way to manage monthly inflation

 Ecuador: Credit card utilization is slightly increasing. Total credit card debt presents a 5% increase in Q4 and a 16% YoY caused by limited microcredits, liquidity restrictions and use of credit cards as financial leverage

Delinquencies

Pronounced rise in personal loan delinquencies across multiple regions, with some areas surpassing pre-pandemic levels 

Chart data is indexed as of Q4 2019.
*Data not reported for this region

  North America

  United States: Non-mortgage delinquency (removing student loans) have reached pre-pandemic levels on all product categories, while mortgage delinquency remains much lower, despite an uptick in 2023

  United States: Auto and personal loan delinquency is continuing to increase, while credit card delinquency has steadied in the most recent month

  Canada: Delinquencies and insolvencies are rising across the board. Over 150k more consumers missed at least 1 payment than 12 months ago

  Canada: Mortgage delinquency is exceeding 2019 levels for younger consumers and those in Ontario and British Columbia


  South America

  Argentina:  Delinquency is starting to rise since economic uncertainty and high interest rates are affecting payment capacity

  Ecuador:  Personal loans delinquency is starting to rise since liquidity problems and economic uncertainty are affecting payment capacity

  Brazil:  The delinquency rate for auto and personal loans increased slightly (2.2%). However, mortgages fell by 28.3% compared to the last year

  Europe

  United Kingdom: Mortgage delinquencies are showing sustained increases as mortgage customers transition out of low interest fixed rate periods on to new higher interest fixed or variable rate products. Unsecured delinquency rates are generally stable despite consumer cost pressures

 

  Oceania

  Australia:  Delinquencies for mortgages and credit cards are hovering at 2022 levels. Personal loan and auto loan delinquencies improved compared to last year

  New Zealand:  While late stage home loan delinquencies were relatively stable for the later half of 2023, there is worsening hardship stress in the economy. Home loan accounts flagged in hardship have increased for 11 consecutive months

 

Delinquency: The delinquency rate refers to the percentage of loans that are 90 or more days past due.
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