What Do Industry Leaders Think Are the Top Risks in 2026?: Affordability, Interest Rates, and Fraud Lead the Way

Highlights: 

• According to the 2025 Market Pulse survey, industry leaders see the top macroeconomic risks for 2026 as tied between affordability and high interest rates (64% each), with inflation and digital fraud also ranking as major business concerns.

• The Market Pulse survey shows a split economic outlook for 2026 among industry leaders, and while AI adoption for risk management is growing—especially in fraud detection—a significant portion of organizations (over one-third) are not yet using AI for this purpose.

Each year, we ask our Market Pulse audience, made up of experts and leaders across a wide range of industries, what their thoughts are about the hottest topics in the market and what’s on their minds as they plan for the year ahead. As 2026 begins, these insights help us better understand how organizations are preparing for new challenges, shifting risks, and adapting to a fast-changing economic environment. This blog post is the first in a three-part series exploring what our audience shared and what their responses might signal for the coming year.

A Split Outlook on the Economy

When asked about their overall economic outlook for the upcoming year, our respondents showed a noticeable divide. Out of over 100 respondents,

• 35% said they feel more optimistic about the economy.

• 40% said they are less optimistic.

• 23% believe things will stay about the same as last year.

This near-even split suggests that confidence is improving for some sectors but remains shaky for others. Many businesses are still watching key trends closely as they evaluate the strength of the recovery and execute their 2026 strategies.

Want to stay on top of the latest trends in today’s economy? Discover reports, podcasts, webinars, and more from Market Pulse. 

Top Macroeconomic Pressures: Affordability and Interest Rates Lead

Survey participants also weighed in on the top macroeconomic factors impacting their business today. The results show just how many forces leaders are managing at once.

Affordability and interest rates were tied as the top concerns, each selected by 64% of respondents. This result reflects the pressure many households and businesses are feeling as borrowing costs stay high and everyday expenses continue to rise.

Inflation, mentioned by 55% of participants, remains a major factor, influencing pricing, wages, and operational planning. Meanwhile, labor market challenges, chosen by 37%, continue to affect industries that rely on skilled workers or high-volume hiring.

Fraud also remains a significant threat, with one in three leaders saying it is directly impacting their business. As digital transactions grow and fraud schemes become more sophisticated, many organizations are feeling the pressure to strengthen their defenses.

AI in Risk Management: Adoption Is Growing, Though Uncertainty Remains

AI continues to be a major area of discussion across industries, but our survey shows that organizations are still at very different stages in their adoption journey.

Here’s how respondents say AI is impacting their risk management strategies:

• Incorporating AI into fraud detection and prevention – 31%

• Using AI for credit risk assessment – 20%

• Leveraging AI for operational risk management – 23%

• Not currently using AI in risk management – 34%

These numbers reflect both momentum and hesitation. While many companies are beginning to use AI to strengthen fraud prevention and streamline operational risk processes, a significant portion — over one-third — still aren’t using AI at all, leaving them at risk of falling behind their competition. Another 23% are unsure of whether their organization uses AI, which may point to communication gaps or early-stage experimentation that hasn’t made its way across teams yet.

The growing use of AI for fraud detection aligns with rising concerns about digital fraud risks. As these threats continue to evolve, more organizations may feel increased pressure to adopt AI-driven tools that offer faster detection and more accurate pattern monitoring.

Discover how a CISO thinks AI will continue to shape today’s (and tomorrow’s) market environment. 

What These Insights Suggest for 2026 and Beyond

Taken together, the survey results show that our Market Pulse audience is preparing for a year marked by both opportunity and uncertainty as the gap between the high income households and lower to middle income households continues to widen, a result of today’s K-shaped economy. Economic confidence varies widely, and many leaders are still concerned about the impact of rates, inflation, affordability, and fraud. At the same time, organizations are beginning to take steps toward more advanced risk management strategies, including increased interest in AI.

Keep Your Business Goals Within Sight

We hope you will join us for our Market Pulse webinars, where we break down the top industry trends you should pay attention to. To ask questions in real time and gain deeper insights before anyone else, you have to be there. Don’t miss it! Stay tuned to register, plus find our monthly Small Business Insights, National Consumer Credit Trends reports, the Market Pulse podcast, and more at our Market Pulse hub.